Friday, July 20, 2012

Interracial illegitimacy

I was a little surprised when this post by Susan Walsh, which echoed a similar one by Steve Sailer, not only didn't mention the obvious, but required 69 comments before anyone bothered to comment upon the obvious:
What in the personal histories of these two women separates them so tragically and increasingly typically? We know there are several risk factors that correlate to poverty and limited opportunities for children. Lack of education, less than two parents actively engaged in raising them, and teen pregnancy are just a few. But what is the root cause, the thing that we find when we strip away all the demographic factors?
Susan is correct to point to female choice, but the female choice she fails to mention is the significant one. Jessica Shairer chose to have sex with a black man. Chris Faulkner chose to have sex with a white man. Is this relevant to their divergent outcomes? Let's examine the statistics.

The white illegitimacy rate is 29 percent. A white woman who chooses a white man as her sexual partner and bears his child has a 71 percent chance of being married to him. The black illegitimacy rate is 72 percent. However, we can't simply assume that a white woman who chooses a black man as her sexual partner and allows him to impregnate her will have a 28 percent chance of being married to him because black men behave differently with white women than they do with black women.

Unfortunately, interracial births were previously so rare that the USA only began collecting data on them in 2003 and some states still do not break them out separately. However, because the CDC, which tracks birth statistics, utilizes a statistical technique called "bridging", which basically involves counting two half-black births as one black one, some social scientists have broken out the data utilizing "reverse bridging", which allows us to make the necessary calculations.

17 percent of births identified as black are actually interracial, which means that 16.7 percent of interracial black children are born to white mothers because the "reverse bridging proportion" of black children who are the product of a black father and a white mother is 98.2 percent; such children make up the vast majority of black-white interracial mixes. Since blacks represent 14.7 percent of all births, this means 2.45 percent of all US births are interracial ones born to white mothers and black fathers.

To this we compare the number of interracial marriages between white women and black men. 0.4 percent of all white marriages are to blacks, 64 percent of which involve black men married to white women. So, 0.258 percent of all white women are married to black men. If we compare the percentage of black/white interracial births to black/white interracial marriages, we see that the former (2.45%) outnumber the latter (0.26%) by a factor of 9.5 to 1. This means that the illegitimacy rate of interracial children born to white mothers and black fathers is 89.5 percent.

So, a white woman has a slightly better than 2 in 3 chance that the white father of her children will marry her. A black woman has a slightly worse than 1 in 3 chance that the black father of her children will marry her. But a white woman has barely a 1 in 10 chance that a black father of her children will marry her.

I leave it to the evo-psych fantasists to explain why this should be. I merely present the observable and statistical facts for your edification.

77 comments:

stg58 said...

"I was told there would be no math."

--George W. Bush

Der Hahn said...

One statement that jumped out at me from Shairer was that she put off marriage until 'they could afford a big reception and a long gown.'

Yahright. Cue the hamster to come up with an excuse for knowing he wasn't going to wife her up.

Anonymous said...

Vox, the unstated point you've made, of course, is that it has become verboten even to refer to these facts when discussing illegitimate birth, interracial couplings, and the white woman/black man coupling phenomenon. It is the pink elephant in the room (can't say 800 pound gorilla 'cause that'd be raaaayyyciiiiisst) that no one dare talk about. Frankly I have some misgivings even pointing this out. We all know someone will come on here, or link to this post, wag their fingers at us, and tsk-tsk "racism!" It is as predictable as the day is long.

What I don't know is if there are cultural differences, intelligence differences or other factors that account for the very low black man/white woman marriage rate when he fathers her child(ren).

deti

Stickwick said...

Even if this wasn't a baloney excuse, it's still an exceptionally lame reason not to marry as soon as they knew she was pregnant. Putting off making your kid legitimate just so you can have a big party and look like a princess. Just goes to show that these low-lifes have no clue what marriage is really about.

Anonymous said...

That 2.45% number seems too large since blacks are only 10% of the population, and if the stereotype is correct, black men are having sex with undesirable women, some of which are too old to bear children.

What would be fascinating to know is what percentage of white women have had sex with black men during their fertile years. Can you reverse bridge that from your data? The percentage having sex is higher than percentage giving birth due to abortions, birth control, infertility, and the overall unlikelihood of conception in general.

R. Bradley Andrews said...

Being married for a period is not much of a solution in many cases. My daughter is married to the father of her child, but I have very little expectation he will ever be a provider for his family and the future of single parenthood or serial marriage looks far too likely for her.

She came from a horrible family background, though my wife and I started raising her young. Unfortunately we couldn't overcome the influence of her birth family from her life (or that of her siblings).

Scott said...

They're having sex with undesirable fat women. I've never noticed black guy with old white chick stereotype but decent looking black guy with a land whale seems to happen a decent amount of the time.

Vox said...

Frankly I have some misgivings even pointing this out. We all know someone will come on here, or link to this post, wag their fingers at us, and tsk-tsk "racism!" It is as predictable as the day is long.

Frankly my dear, I don't give an airborne rodent's posterior. And it's not so much that it's verboten, it's a relatively new phenomenon and the straight statistics don't exist.

And believe it or not, this may UNDERESTIMATE the relative disinclination of black men to marry the white mothers of their children. I've seen a number as high as 3.15 percent, but it's based on a sample size and so I believe the 2.45 percent number is more accurate.

IQ is likely a factor. For the most part, the white women getting involved with these black men are the lowest quintile. Also, college-educated black men are 2x more inclined to marry than their non-college educated counterparts, but there aren't very many of them and they tend to marry college-educated black women.

Giraffe said...

And believe it or not, this may UNDERESTIMATE the relative disinclination of black men to marry the white mothers of their children.

Math is hard, but I think it most certainly does underestimate. You compare total black/white marriages to total black/white babies.

At least some of those marriages have to be "normal", wherein the children come after the wedding.

11.5%, therefore, is a best case number.

Giraffe said...

Nevermind, it seems that your numbers would account for that.

Koanic said...

Some rich blog fodder here from a female journalist. Multiple articles worthy of a look. Main one salivates over JFK.

ajw308 said...

I'm reading a book, The Top 17 Short Science Fiction Stories From Last Year, or something similar. I was on my way to the gymn, needed a book to read while cycling and that seemed to be the best option from a limited selection. I haven't read a good story yet, I'm about 1/3 of the way through it.

The last story I read was by an African woman living in Chicago. They precede the stories with a little bio of the author. I usually find myself wondering how I'm going to enjoy something this person has written.

In the story,a black character sucked air though his teeth. Usually I'd have paid little notice to it, but after having read this, it took on more significance.

I'm not sure how much behavior is genetic and how much is learned. The source is most likely a moot point here and now in the present. It's not like it can be changed in a generation, no matter the source.

There's a lack of commitment towards their children in the black community. No surprise there, but you can't say it and be polite, but there's to much proof to argue against it.

Passer_By said...

I think your math is off in a couple ways.

First, some finite number of the interracial marriages will have no children - so that would actually make the 10.5% go down, I guess. I guess what I'm getting at is we would probably need to know the relative fecundity of bm/ww marriages to wm/ww marriages.

On the other hand, you say this:

" because the "reverse bridging proportion" of black children who are the product of a black father and a white mother is 98.2 percent:

If by that you mean the percentage of black-white interracial births that have a black father/white mother, that strikes me as unrealistically high in light of the 64% number you give. I understand that out of wedlock births will almost certainly drive it up (since white men are more likely to marry the mother), but driving it up to 98.2 seems almost impossible even at 90% illegitimacy.

Next:

" 0.4 percent of all white marriages are to blacks"

.4% of existing intact marriages? Or .4 percent of weddings?

" So, 0.258 percent of all white women are married to black men."

I assume you mean .258 percent of MARRIED white women. Maybe, assuming your .4% was for existing intact marriages involving one or more whites. If it's .4 percent of all weddings involving a white person, I suspect black male interracial marriages have a higher rate of divorce, so this would drive that number down somewhat (thereby lowering the 10.5 more).

"If we compare the percentage of black/white interracial births to black/white interracial marriages, we see that the former (2.45%) outnumber the latter (0.26%) by a factor of 9.5 to 1. This means that the illegitimacy rate of interracial children born to white mothers and black fathers is 89.5 percent."

Firstly, the 2.45 number seems way too low since I think we should be looking at the percentage of births ro WHITE WOMEN that are b/w interracial (since we are talking about percentage of married WHITE women who are married to blacks). So you'd have to exclude all the hispanic births and asian births, etc. to be relevant, I would think. So that would drive your 10% much lower. On the other hand, I can't articulate why right now, but dividing those two numbers doesn't immediately strike me as a valid way to get at that ultimate number. It just feels like you are dividing two numbers that sound related, but on closer inspection, don't provide the number you seek. I'll have to give that more thought. Maybe I'm missing something.

Anonymous said...

I believe the answer is fairly simplistic.

10 of the top 12 states with the highest black population are southern US states such as Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia etc (top 3). If one considers that Louisiana is barely 20 years removed from nearly having the head of the KKK being elected as it's state Governor. It is pretty easy to see why a black man marrying a white woman is very likely highly frowned upon by many in these southern US states...to say the least. Thus making it much more difficult for the white female to garner her families acceptance of a black man in many cases. As one could not honestly expect the racism to be completely removed from just 20 years ago.

Anonymous said...

That second sentence should have read the highest black population percentage.

Passer_By said...

@anonymous

"Thus making it much more difficult for the white female to garner her families acceptance of a black man in many cases."

Yet somehow they would MORE accepting of her bearing his child out of wedlock? If she's going to have a mullato baby, I would think her family's view on interracial marriage is no longer the hindrance to marriage.

Anonymous said...

I don't think that you can draw any logical conclusions about the chances of a man marrying his pregnant sex partner from the numbers you've presented. You are supposedly a pretty smart guy do I'm sure that you can see the obvious flaws in your logic if you want to.

Vox said...

I don't think that you can draw any logical conclusions about the chances of a man marrying his pregnant sex partner from the numbers you've presented.

There are no flaws in the logic, you're simply not understand what the statistics apply to... and the fact that they primarily have to do with whether the woman is already married to the man or not. The number who get married in between getting pregnant and the birth of the baby would be trivial.

This doesn't change the fact that black men tend not to marry the white women they eventually knock up.

realmatt said...

As long as they only do this with the fat slobs whose hideous spawn I won't think twice about killing when the Killing Time comes, I don't give a damn.

We'll need their bodies to feed my lions.

R. Bradley Andrews said...

Another question is whether this applies to other "interracial" relationships? Is it as true for Caucasian-Asian relationships, for example?

I don't buy the idea of race as it is widely allied though, since we are all the human race, but that is another discussion.

Anonymous said...

"This doesn't change the fact that black men tend not to marry the white women they eventually knock up."

Or

White women tend not to marry the black men that knock them up.

Candide said...

The other fact that stood out for me, which nobody has pointed out so far, is that the reward for the white husband - who works some crazy shifts to provide for the family - is a humongous fat wife who doesn't even try to look like a woman anymore.

Pretty sure that's a win for the black guy, wherever he is now.

Steve Sailer said...

And then she would have to lose all that Baby Weight to fit into that long gown. Lotsa luck with that ...

Anonymous said...

No.

Anonymous said...

Absolutely. It's like a Pascal wager for black guys. If she's willing to get married, she's also willing to have sex. If she's not having sex then there's no courtship and she's not getting married. If she's willing to get married, then she's also less attractive than she was when he met her. Just go for the lay.

TLM said...

Raciss Alert - We now refer to the spawn of fat white women and black guys as niglets. Its wrong, but funny. And these chicks seem to congregrate in packs with other fat husbandless white mud sharks. Just when you want to feel sorry for them due to their failure to realize the conseuences of their mating choices, they open their mouths speaking in hoodanese as if they too grew up in Cabrini Green.

Anonymous said...

If you're not getting black white monogamy then you're probably getting polygamy with a small number of black guys maintaining harems.

Not many black guys come in contact with white women, but your numbers suggest there are a fair number of interactions: # of Interactions > # of Conversations > # of Dates > # of Sexual Encounters > # of relationships > # of Births > # of Marriages.

As you can see in the case of Laura Ackerson, three mixed race births are associated with two white women and one black man.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2018717/Laura-Ackerson-killed-ex-boyfriend-wife-start-new-life-Virgin-Islands.html

mmaier2112 said...

"Just when you want to feel sorry for them due to their failure to realize the conseuences of their mating choices...."

??????

I can't say I feel for them at all. And I find it amusing how some think that a black man lusting after their whale-like selves justifies their being so very obese.

realmatt said...

I'd like to point out that black men are the horniest creatures on the planet and will have sex with just about anything. We see more fat ugly white women with them only because they tend to be the ones with nothing to lost, socially, and are more willing to be seen with them.

I have noticed a rising number of attractive white and even asian girls willing to be seen with their black boyfriends here in NY, where it's more accepted and the girls are around black guys more, especially when they get to high school.

It's not a lot, but more than I used to see.

It shouldn't be too surprising. Their disgusting culture is everywhere and if their idiot white boyfriends are pathetic wiggers, they're bound to be attracted to the real deal.

Jeigh Di said...

Wonder what the odds are of a white man marrying a white woman with mulatto children. Pretty slim, I'd guess.

Mansizedtarget.com said...

I think the reason it's lower is mostly these are trashy women with low self esteem who fall for predatory, thuggish, low IQ guys from the hood. That's the vast majority of these couplings. Once in a while respectable people get together, but this is the large numbers aspect.

Here's some other interesting stats: much higher rates of domestic violence and murder in black/white interracial marriages. I don't expect a PSA on that one anytime soon, however!

http://www.amnation.com/vfr/archives/017832.html

ken in sc said...

Here in South Carolina, you can see many white women with black kids in Wal-Mart, and not all of them are fat. However, they are tatted up and look like trash.

mmaier2112 said...

"Wonder what the odds are of a white man marrying a white woman with mulatto children. Pretty slim, I'd guess."

I doubt I'd ever even consider it unless she were a black man's widow or legally-verified rape victim.

And I was in a five-year or so LTR with a black woman.

Joe Blow said...

Interesting discussion, but "black" is an odd construct. There are the descendants of ex-slaves who act like white trash, because frankly that's who was sharecropping with them; there is a large chunk of the black community that has risen into the middle class, but which has something similar to Archie Bunker's lower middle class outlook on life; a fairly small black middle-upper and upper business and political class that has largely rejected what the media portrays as "authentic" black culture though they make nods to it (see e.g. Eric Holder), and then there are the African emigres, who are distributed all along the social and intellectual bell curve, most of whom do not view the entire world through the lens of race (even the South African blacks). So talking about "black" marriage is like talking about "white culture," a generalization so overbroad as to be fatally vague. I suspect within the two lower tiers of "black" culture, the lower end and middle/lower middle class portion, marriage is rejected as "too white," and marriage to a white woman would be considered doubly so.

It would be interesting to see the marriage figures broken out by socioeconomic status, and whether the individuals polled are descended from slaves or are African immigrants or their descendants.

nati said...

I have noticed this too. I think this is a fertile area of discussion and could yield good game insight. I brought this up on heartiste recently but didn't find much of a good discussion.

Anonymous said...

If 98.2% of "mulatto" births are black male/white female, then only 1.8% of births are white male/black female. That's low; three observations:

1. black women probably use birth control less frequently than white women, due to affordability, but high earning professional black women exposed to white men probably use birth control at the same rate as a white women.

2. several observers have suggested black women "date out" and seek beta Asian or white men, in response to the shortage of eligible black men, but some bloggers like Ricky Raw think black women really like black men, maybe to a fault. Either black women don't like white men, or the opposite is true, but 1.8% seems really low.

3. a large number of traditional (non-immigrant descended from slaves) blacks have white ancestry, as you can see from the fair complexion and straighter hair. Historically, most, if not all, white black pairings were white male / black slave female due to Jim Crow type restrictions.

Anonymous said...

I've also happened to notice decent looking white men with whales. Undesirable men mate with undesirable women (that's the general rule).

Anonymous said...

Good job pointing that out. I do not know why people expect a poor black man to leave fat black women to jump the fence and impregnate the best of white women. Get a clue.

Anonymous said...

Seems like some people here have issues with their lives. People seems to think that the general rule that applies to white dating patterns does not apply to blacks. That's moronic.

1. Undesirable women mate with undesirable men and vice versa. If an undesirable black man dates undesirable black women, he is most likely going to date undesirable white women.

2. Selection bias. Whites make up the majority of the population and people tend to notice interracial relationships more so than intra-racial relationships. That being said, most fat white women are with white men.

3. Socio-economic factors. As percentage of their respective populations, there is a larger number of poor black men than white men. Guess what kind of women poor men usually end up with? The best of the best, right? Not exactly.

4. The novelty factor. When undesirable black men run into undesirable white women, they become intrigued to a degree. Granted that most of those undesirable black men do not live around white people, one cannot expect otherwise.

5. It's quite idiotic to solely use male looks to make a critique of the type of females such male is pulling. It's a status issue. A well off decent looking guy will get better quality women than a good looking poor guy nine times out of ten.

6. If you normalize for black men who attended top institutions and earn over 100K per year, whatever "groundbreaking" trends that you found will disappear. Granted, such black men are statistically insignificant considering the percentage of the population that they make up.

7. Statistics are simply statistics. There are too many factors for one to simply jump about and make haphazard comments. When a certain difference exists, the first question you should ask is "why", "who" and "what". Feminist promulgate the wage gap myth because they simple use statistics as a comparison tool. Statistics call for further inspection and inquiry, they are not the conclusion.

Aaron Baugher said...

That's what I was thinking: it may not be that the black men won't marry them, but that marriage isn't what white women want from the black men they sleep with. At least some white women who sleep with black men are looking for the experience, trying to do things that would shock their parents, etc. That doesn't mean they want a black husband for life. Some of those who get stuck with a baby will go for abortion, of course, but some won't, so they'll end up as single moms.

Anonymous said...

I'd be interested to see data pointing to the fact that women in interracial couples have lower IQs. It seems like pure conjecture at this point but I'll keep my mind open

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Apple said...

"Unfortunately, interracial births were previously so rare that the USA only began collecting data on them in 2003 and some states still do not break them out separately."

you mean that they were rare between black and white women...they weren't as rare as people like to pretend in the reverse.

Apple said...

*black men and white women

Anonymous said...

Excellent article. Hard to find legit statistics on this issue. The statistics match my personal observations very closely. This lends tremendous support for the "racist" belief that interracial relationships are more frequently dysfunctional and should be avoided or entered into much more carefully.

If it were possible, I would insert one more piece into the statistical puzzle. My estimate is that 90% of White women who reproduce or marry black men are either fat, on drugs, totally uneducated, or severely mentally ill, or all of the above.

The problem has worsened in recent years, probably due to the economy. 25 years ago, I didn't see White black couples as all that bad because they were somehow more healthy than now. The current couples are almost invariable sick, racists in reverse.

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